DISTANT GALAXIES AND COSMOLOGICAL MODELS

Edward J. Barlow
Member of National Academy of Engineering
Recipient of NASA Public Service Award
Previous member Report Review Committee of the National Research Council
Retired Vice President, Research & Development, Varian Associates


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Abstract
Introduction
Now Let the Story Unfold
Model I - Fixed Space
General Relativity
Model II - Very Low Mass Density Universe
Model III and IIIa - Critical Mass Density
Model IV - Mass Density 0.3 Critical
Model V - With a Cosmological Constant
Other Aspects of the Models
Observational Findings
Reporting in the Press
The Equations and Appendices
Appendix I
Appendix II
Appendix III
References
Graphs


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Abstract

Astronomers observe distant galaxies, quasars and supernovae. They can measure apparent luminosity and redshift. From these measurements they seek to deduce things like velocity of recession expressed by the Hubble constant, distance away the galaxy or object is, age of the universe when the light was emitted they are now observing, present age of the universe and its future development, the value of the cosmological constant (lambda), the presence of dark matter, the shape of space and the like. To make these deductions, mathematical models called cosmological models are used. There have been many such models used over the years. Observations are suggesting which models are closest to fitting our real universe. How old is the universe? Is the expansion slowing down or speeding up? What is the eventual fate of the universe? Exciting things are happening and new data are pouring in. In this paper, a series of models of increasing sophistication is presented and related to experimental data to help with these questions and to help with understanding and interpreting how observations are being reported in the press. The concepts of general relativity used for these models are also described. Many easy-to-understand graphs and equations are also included. The graphs are presented with simple axes like time in years and distances in light-years.

Introduction

A non-cosmologist, reading a statement in the press, might find something like this: "A very distant galaxy has just been discovered. It is so far away that the light from it that we see now left the galaxy when the universe was less than 10% of its present age and has been traveling for 14 billion years. The galaxy is 14 billion light years away. The redshift of its light is 5.8." This statement seems confusing. If the galaxy is now 14 billion light years away, it would seem to have been only about 1 billion light years away or so when the light left it. Why did it take 14 billion years for light to travel 1 billion light years? On the other hand if the galaxy was 14 billion light years away when the light left it 1 billion years after the big bang,, was it going at 14 times the speed of light or more? The equations for the relativistic Doppler shift of light would give a velocity of about 96% of the speed of light for this redshift. This set of statements would seem to be puzzling.

In order to understand what is going on, we need to look at concepts of general relativity and to consider the various models cosmologists have developed. We need to know the results of various observations and measurements of cosmological quantities. We need to understand that the popular press may at times oversimplify the descriptions of cosmological findings. There are exciting new developments in cosmology and new tools will bring in a flood of new data in the next few years.

Now, let the story unfold

When astronomers look out at the heavens on a clear night with large telescopes, they see many distant galaxies of different sizes and shapes and different brightness. They also see supernovae and quasars. For each such object its brightness or apparent luminosity and the red shift of its spectral lines can be measured. When a galaxy (or supernova or quasar) is moving away from us, the wavelengths of its spectral lines are shifted toward the red end of the spectrum. This red shift is related to the velocity of recession of the galaxy (blue shift if the galaxy is coming toward us) and the apparent luminosity is an indication of its distance. It was noted in early observations that although some nearby galaxies had slight blue shifts all the remote ones had redshifts.

Edwin Hubble made many measurements and found that the velocity of recession, v, as determined from the redshift, was approximately proportional to the distance from us, d, determined from the apparent luminosity. The velocities he measured were small compared to the velocity of light, c. This observation created the Hubble constant, H, as in the equation v=Hd. Later measurements extended the range of this relationship but still supported the form v=Hd. This simple equation suggests that if we run time backwards and assume a constant velocity for each galaxy, there was a point in time when all the galaxies in a particular finite region of space such as the presently visible universe were closer together in the past and the universe was more dense.

If we think of this contraction as occurring at a constant rate then there was a time in the past when the space represented by that presently visible universe was extremely dense and, in fact, reached a condition of such extreme matter-energy density and temperature and pressure that the present laws of physics no longer held. If we arbitrarily continue the extrapolation backward to a point of apparent infinite density, we can take this time as t=0 and think of the rapid expansion of space itself after that time as the "big bang". The time after the big bang, the present time, can be called to. This time is simply 1/H in suitable units for the case where the velocity of expansion has been taken to be constant during this period.

Cosmologists generally think in terms of an extremely short time like 10-43 seconds for the initial period when the density was too high for present physics to hold followed by a very rapid expansion period called inflation. All of this taking place in something like 10-32 seconds. Following this, came a period of a very dense, rapidly expanding universe dominated by radiation rather than matter. This period lasted some 300,000 years or so. After this period radiation and matter decoupled and the radiation left over from that period now stretched in wavelength by something like a factor of 1000 is the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) of such interest to cosmologists today. At about the same epoch the universe became matter dominated and we can neglect radiation density compared to matter density for significantly later periods.

The present age of the universe is generally taken to be something like 15 billion years. 300,000 years is thus 0.002% of this total age. Although these early periods are of great interest to cosmologists we will consider in this paper only models that apply after this phase or for more than 99.99% of the history of the universe as we are interested in questions of the present and future rate of expansion and such things as lookback times and distances of distant galaxies. It should be noted in this picture however, that if our present universe is finite in extent it would have been squeezed to a minute speck at the beginning, but if the universe now is infinite in extent it could be infinitely dense and still infinite in extent at the beginning even though any particular finite volume such as the presently visible universe would be just a speck.

While H may be a constant at a given time over galaxies at many distances, it is not a constant over time itself during the period of interest in this paper for the commonly used models considered. Since H=v/d, if we track a given galaxy as space expands (and neglect its own proper motion which is a good approximation except for close-in galaxies) we will see that as time goes on for those models in which the recession velocity, v, is a constant or decreases with time and since d is increasing with time for an expanding universe, H will decrease with time. A recent set of measurements of distant supernovae indicates that perhaps the expansion rate is now actually increasing somewhat but this set of measurements still indicates insufficient increase with v in time to offset the increase in d as galaxies move away, hence H is decreasing at the present time in this case also.

For several models of this paper H in fact varies as 1/t. For the last model, Model V, H approaches a constant value eventually. The present value of H is called Ho. Recent measurements suggest a value in the units usually used of between 50 and 80 kilometers per second per megaparsec for this constant ( a parsec is 3.26 light years). This would give a value for to of 19.6 to 12.2 billion years if galaxies have receded at constant velocities during this time. This is called the Hubble time or 1/Ho in suitable units. More about this later as specific models are discussed.

A cosmological model as discussed in this paper is a mathematical model used by cosmologists to relate, among other things, redshift and luminosity to distances and look-back times and velocities of recession and to realize that there might be two distances, the distance a galaxy is away now as we receive its light, Dr, and the distance away it was when the light was emitted that we see now, De. There are also two times to be considered, the time since the big bang when the light was emitted that we see now, te, and the time when the light is received, tr (which is also called to when it is the present time). There are several different cosmological models in use by cosmologists and they give somewhat different results for these distances and times for any given observation of luminosity and redshift. They also give somewhat different results for the future development of the universe. New observational results continue to refine and select the models and suggest new ones.

Model I- Fixed space

We will develop and present a series of models from a very simple one to the ones now most used by cosmologists and we will bring the story up to recent discoveries of just the last few months. Let us start with Model I. This is the picture which people not familiar with general relativity and the more refined models might be thinking with. Assume galaxies are rushing away from us in all directions through fixed space and they are not accelerating or decelerating, each galaxy is receding from us at a constant velocity, obeying the Hubble equation.

There will be a redshift in the spectral lines of each galaxy related to its recession velocity. For this model, this redshift is called the Doppler shift. The redshift, z, is defined as z=(l-lo)/lo so that z+1=l/lo which is simply the observed wavelength at our telescope of a particular spectral line divided by the emitted wavelength (the wavelength measured in the laboratory). For low velocities and hence low values of z, this leads to the relation v=cz. For velocities of recession approaching that of light we need to use the equations of special relativity in this model to get the relativistic Doppler effect equation tying the recession velocity, v, to the redshift, z. The equations are:

    v=c((z+1)2-1)/((z+1)2+1)--------(1)
    z+1=((1+v/c)/(1-v/c))1/2--------(1a)
When v=c, this redshift is infinite, so no velocities greater than that of light can be observed in this model.

There is a problem with this model. Consider a galaxy rushing away from us at a constant velocity of very nearly the speed of light. Light that it emitted when the universe was half as old as it is now would just be getting to us now and we could not have a lookback time, tlb, (tlb=to-te), greater than half the age of the universe. We find we are able to see much further back in time than this. The cosmic microwave background radiation, CMBR, coming to us from all directions was emitted when the universe was very young (something like 300,000 years after the big bang or about 1/50,000 of its present age), and we can detect this radiation now. It is this background radiation that greatly strengthened the arguments for the big bang theory. We are also able to look back now to galaxies as they were when the universe was less than 10% of its present age. Also, consider a light packet just reaching us now. In this first simple model that packet coming toward us, if it started at nearly the birth of the universe, would have been some 15 billion light years away from us at the big bang - but the big bang model assumes that all of the presently observable region of space was in a very tiny volume at that time.

We can see these problems by examining Figure I which plots distance in billion light years against time in billion years and shows the behavior of galaxies departing from us at the big bang and of light packets reaching us now. In this figure, the intersection of the line for a galaxy with the line for a light path gives the time after the big bang that the light was emitted that we see now, te, and the distance away the galaxy was then, De.

The distance away the galaxy is now, Dr, is where the galaxy line intersects the right vertical axis at an illustrative tr or t0 of 15 billion years in this example. For the reasons given above, and others, we will have to discard Model I, even though it is the easiest for most of us to visualize.

General Relativity

Cosmologists generally use some concepts and equations of general relativity as the most appropriate approach to describe space and to get models fitting the observations and the big bang picture. General relativity has been tested in various ways. One test was to measure the precession of the perihelion of the planet Mercury. Another was to measure the bending of starlight for stars seen near the edge of the sun when it was eclipsed. Another was to measure the redshift of light when leaving a star with a very strong gravitational field. General relativity theory passed these tests. More recently, with more advanced equipment, tests have been made by bouncing laser beams from the earth off retroreflectors on the moon. Results were also consistent with general relativity.

The delay and deflection of light signals passing close to massive objects have now been measured with increasing precision and are in agreement with the predictions of general relativity at the 0.1% level. Geodetic precession has been detected by the laser ranging to the moon coupled with radiointerferometry data. Gravitational radiation from accelerated masses in a binary pulsar system has been shown to be consistent with general relativity at the 0.4% level.

There are still untested aspects of general relativity and there are still competing theories. It is planned to fly a NASA experiment called Gravity Probe B to test general relativity predictions for an effect called frame dragging (to 1%) and geodetic effects (to a part in 10,000) and to see how other theories fare. (The launch date continues to slip). The concepts and equations of general relativity are used in the development of most cosmological models favored by cosmologists, however, and these concepts are used in what follows.

One such concept of general relativity is that we should not think of galaxies rushing away from us through a fixed space, we should think of galaxies more or less standing still in their local space but that space itself is expanding. This is a difficult concept but it can be described mathematically. In this concept, light leaving a distant galaxy is traveling at velocity c toward us in that local space but since space itself is expanding and that local space is moving away from us, the velocity of a light packet toward us (defined in a certain way) is less than c until the packet gets to our local space and the velocity can even be negative for some early portion of the time light travels to us.

Cosmologists also use a principle called the Cosmological Principle which says that if we look at sufficiently large regions of space, space is homogeneous and isotropic, the same everywhere and the same in all directions, there is no center. This means that the rate of expansion of space can be expressed in terms of a single scale factor R(t) which is the same at all points of space at any one time but will be a function of time for an expanding or contracting universe.

The proper distance (explained below) between any two galaxies as a function of time is proportional to R(t) (neglecting small local motions of the galaxies as we will do in most of what follows).

Another concept has to do with the apparent luminosity of distant galaxies. If we define the absolute luminosity, LA, as the total radiant power from a galaxy over all angles and define the apparent luminosity, La, as the radiant power reaching us per unit area of our telescope, then in the simple case of a nearby galaxy, La=LA/4pd2 where d is the distance to that galaxy, hence d=(LA/4pLa)1/2. This is called the luminosity distance, Dl. (There may have to be an additional correction, called the K correction, for the shape of the energy spectrum of the emitting galaxy and the limitations of the spectral range of the measuring instruments which measure La.) (LA is based on observations of nearby galaxies and assumes a fairly consistent total radiant power of even the distant galaxies of similar type.)

Since for more distant galaxies the light has been traveling toward us for a long time, the question arises, is this the proper distance away the galaxy was when it emitted the light we see now, or the proper distance away it is now or even something else? With this concept of general relativity of space itself expanding, reflection will show that the correct distance to use is the proper distance away now when the light is received, Dr.

There is also a need to make a correction for the wavelength of the received photons as the light has been stretched out as the universe has expanded during its travel. This reduces the energy by the factor of 1/(z+1). Also, the rate at which the photons are being received is reduced by the same factor so La is reduced by 1/(z+1)2. The final equation then for Dr is:

Dr=Dl/(z+1).--------------(2)

This distance is called the proper distance or proper comoving distance. See Narlikar, Introduction to Cosmology pp 94-97(1) for this derivation.

Now we have several concepts of distance. To understand the proper distance let's use a simple analogy. Suppose our universe is only two-dimensional and is modeled by the surface of a balloon which is being steadily inflated. A sticker on the balloon represents our position and other stickers represent the positions of other galaxies. At a particular instant let's measure with a tape along the surface of the balloon the distance from our sticker to another sticker representing the galaxy under observation. This measurement is the proper distance. Another way to describe it is to imagine starting at our position in space in the real universe with a series of observers in a straight line to the galaxy being examined, each carrying a non-expanding measuring stick and measuring the distance to his neighbor at a particular instant. The sum of these measurements is the proper distance at that instant. This seems like the most physically meaningful distance concept. So now, we have the luminosity distance, Dl, the proper distance now, Dr, and the proper distance then, De.

There is one more concept of distance, the light travel distance. Imagine an insect crawling along the surface of the balloon from the distant sticker to our sticker. If the insect counted its number of steps to get here and knew the length of each step and multiplied these numbers, it would come up with a distance greater than the distance then but less than the distance now. Call this distance Dlt or the light-travel distance. Thus De<Dlt<Dr. Thus, Dlt=ctlb. Note that we now have four concepts of distance. The differences are illustrated in a later Figure related to the third model to be discussed.

One can also think of the analogy of a muffin filled with raisins. Before the muffin is baked, the raisins are close together. As it is baked and the yeast causes it to rise, the raisins all move away from each other, and the further apart two raisins are at the beginning the more rapidly they move away from each other. The distance apart of two raisins is the proper distance in this analogy when this separation is measured with a ruler.

The balloon analogy is helpful in another way. The balloon surface is a closed 2-dimensional curved surface of finite area, yet it has no edges. One can imagine it starting from almost a point then inflating to a certain size, stopping and contracting again. Another surface would be a flat surface of infinite extent. Still another would be something like a saddle-shaped surface, also of infinite extent.

These illustrate in 2 dimensions what some of the concepts of general relativity are of curved 3-dimensional surfaces which we cannot readily visualize but which can be described mathematically. The balloon analogy carried to a higher dimension is called a hypersphere.

For the cosmological models most used by cosmologists, (neglecting something called the cosmological constant which will be explained later), if the present mass density of the universe is large enough, space is positively curved (like the balloon). If the mass density is a certain critical value, space is flat. For lower mass densities, space is negatively curved, something like saddle-shaped. (In a space of positive curvature the sum of the interior angles of a triangle will be greater than 1800, for flat space, the sum of the angles will equal 1800, and for negatively curved space the sum will be less than 1800. You would need an enormously large triangle to see this effect.) For a positively curved (or closed) universe, gravity is strong enough that the expansion will slow down, stop and reverse. The volume of this universe will be finite, and so will its lifetime. For the universe of just the critical density, the expansion will slow down and only stop after an infinite time (dR/dt-->0). Such a universe is generally considered to be open or infinite in extent and to be flat. At lesser densities the universe (also open) will expand forever. For a universe of this present lower mass density, if we look back in time the density approaches the critical density closer and closer to be virtually identical to it just after the big bang. For a description of these spaces see The Shape of Space(2) by Jeffrey Weeks.

The balloon analogy helps us to think about questions like, if space is flat or saddle-shaped, does space have an edge? Is there more of the universe we cannot now see? Are there more universes different from ours? These are difficult questions but the balloon analogy helps us to see that for at least some universe models space can be finite in extent but still not have an edge. There is a recent article in the Scientific American(3) discussing these questions of the extent and shape of space and suggesting possibilities for space to be flat or saddle-shaped but still finite in what is referred to as a multiply-connected universe. In the next few years, more observations of galaxy distributions may shed light on this issue. Some cosmologists think that model universes which have zero or negative curvature and yet are finite in extent are "pathological" while others want to search for evidence that our universe might be of such a kind.

Another concept of general relativity is that the red shift of light from distant galaxies due solely to the expansion of space itself is not given by the relativistic Doppler shift equation of special relativity but is simply related to the present scale factor of the universe compared to the scale factor when the light was emitted that we see now. The equation is:

z+1=R(tr)/R(te)-----------(3)

The relativistic Doppler effect is appropriate for the redshifts due to local motions such as the rotation of our own Milky Way galaxy and its motion toward a nearby galaxy cluster, the Virgo cluster.

The equation for the total redshift when both the cosmological redshift and Doppler redshift are involved is given in Peebles Principles of Physical Cosmology(4), pages 96-98.

While in special relativity there is no standard of rest and no preferred reference frame, in general relativity the situation is somewhat different. A rest frame for any particular region of space can be defined as the frame which is not rotating compared to the background of distant stars and for which the cosmic microwave background radiation, CMBR, has the same spectrum in all directions and so the concept of local motion in that frame is meaningful. In another region of space, there would also be a rest frame for which the CMBR is the same in all directions, but the two rest frames are moving with respect to each other so there is no preferred frame of that type for the universe as a whole and no center of the universe. We can however, define a comoving rest frame for the universe as a whole for which the requirement of the CMBR being the same in all directions and there being a standard of rotation based on the distant stars is met at all locations.

Still another concept is that, since we are thinking of space itself expanding rather than of galaxies rushing through space, and since we are assuming that galaxies are nearly standing still in their local spaces for these simple models, we need not use the equations of special relativity of the difference in clock rates of observers in uniform motion with respect to each other, we can think, instead, of a single universal time for the universe as a whole.

General relativity also allows for the introduction of something called the cosmological constant. For now, assume that the cosmological constant is not involved in the first few models to be discussed.

Model II - Very Low Mass Density Universe

Let us look at models embodying these concepts of general relativity starting with a very simple one with such low mass density that the galaxies can be treated as receding from us at constant velocities with no deceleration due to gravitational attraction. This is Model II, illustrated in Figure II which also plots proper distances away from us in billion light years against the age of the universe in billion years. The galaxy lines are still straight lines in this graph but the line showing the light packet reaching us now shows that it did indeed start near us as it has to in the big bang model and went away for a time and then started back reaching proper velocity c relative to us as it arrived. Again, the intersection of a galaxy line and the light path line gives us the time when the light was emitted that we see now and the distance away the galaxy was at that time.

In this model, we can see galaxies which are receding from us at proper velocities greater than the velocity of light if we define this proper velocity as the rate of change of proper distance. We now have two new quantities, the galaxy proper velocity when the light was emitted that we see now, ve, and the present proper velocity, vr. For this model, since we assumed no deceleration or acceleration of the galaxies, the two velocities are the same.

The redshift and the recession velocity divided by c are also plotted against the time te when the light was emitted that we see now at that redshift.

Model III and IIIa - Critical Mass Density

Next, let us take into account the gravitational attraction of the mass in the universe which will act to slow down the expansion. It is tempting to think that the mass density now really is the critical density mentioned above. Remember the orbits of the planets being perfect circles to the astronomers of the Middle ages? Consider next a Model III with significant mass density, in fact with just the critical density giving us a flat space and being the dividing line between universes which expand forever (like Model II) and ones which stop and collapse again. For this model, the equations of general relativity take simple forms (and take the same form as Newtonian equations). This turns out to be a model which has been much used by cosmologists in interpreting their experimental results. It has an appeal, being the special case in which the mass density is exactly the critical value right after the big bang and stays the critical value always. This model is called the Einstein deSitter model after its authors. In this model, R(t) is proportional to t2/3. The results for this model are shown in Figure III for an age of the universe, tr, of 15 billion years. Again, the curves are shown for various galaxies and for the light packets reaching us now. Since the galaxies are slowing down, their labeled velocities in Figure III are the velocity now, vr. In addition, the proper distance D shown is how far away from us now a light packet is which was emitted from us at time te.

Many cosmologists use this Model III in reporting their results of observations of very distant galaxies or supernovae. If, for example, the redshift, z, of a very distant galaxy is measured as 5.34 ( recent paper using this model)(5) the model would say that the object was observed when the universe was a bit less than 1 billion years old.

For this model, since the galaxies are slowing down, the age of the universe is not 1/H0 but 2/3H0. Thus, Figure IIIa shows this model also for an age of the universe of 10 billion years to correspond with the 15 billion years of Model II, both having the same value of H0.

Figure IV shows the four concepts of distance discussed above for this Model III. It can be seen that, although at very low values of z the different distances are quite close, they diverge rapidly for larger values of z. Thus, it is interesting to know which concept of distance is being used in papers reporting observations of distant galaxies.

Model IV - Mass Density 0.3 Critical

It turns out that the present mass density of the universe as determined from the visible stars and galaxies is considerably less than the critical density of Model III, hence the "missing mass" problem which cosmologists have been working on. The best efforts to date on the mass density problem show that the mass of the visible stars and galaxies is 2% or so of this critical value.

There is evidence of "dynamic dark matter" in halos around galaxies deduced from the pattern of the orbital motions of the stars and gas in these galaxies. Just recently, some of this "dark matter" has been seen faintly in the infrared halo of a nearby galaxy and information is beginning to come in from the X-ray satellite. Some dark matter also exists between galaxies in galaxy clusters. Some of this dark matter might be dead or dying stars. There is even some evidence that neutrinos might have a very small mass and further add to the total, and there may be other forms of dark matter of even more exotic nature called Machos and Wimps, but it is hard to find evidence for more than about 1/3 the critical mass from all known sources.

Our next model, Model IV, shows, in Figure V what the graphs look like for a present age of 15 billion years, a present mass density of 0.3 critical and a negative curvature of space. As would be expected, the results lie between those of Model II and Model III. For one galaxy the curve is developed using numerical integration of the relativistic equations (see Appendix III) and also with a simple analytical expression for the scale factor labeled "best fit". This approximate expression is R(t)~(t 2/3+at) and appears to be quite a close fit. Note that the mass density approaches the critical value as we look further and further back in time toward the big bang. Very soon after the big bang the density would be the critical density to one part in a million or even closer. This is why thinking the mass density must be exactly the critical value has been appealing although experimental data may continue to show a lower mass density.

Model V - With a Cosmological Constant

Can there be a model with less than critical mass density and yet flat space? When Albert Einstein was first developing his equations of general relativity and applying them to these cosmological questions he found that his model universe would be either expanding or contracting. He did not like this result as he felt the universe should be static and eternal. In order to cancel out the effects of gravity on galaxy motions, he introduced into his equations a repulsive force by adding an arbitrary constant called the cosmological constant. This can be thought of as representing the energy density of space itself. This produced a model with unstable equilibrium however, the least movement away from a stationary universe would cause the universe to continue to contract or to expand. When Hubble and others made measurements of the recession velocity of galaxies and developed the picture of an expanding universe, starting in the big bang, the idea of a static universe fell into disfavor. Einstein felt that the cosmological constant was inappropriate and he dropped it.

For some years the cosmological constant has not been used much or has been set equal to zero in most models and has been set equal to zero in the discussion thus far. Recently, however, there has been great renewed interest in a non-zero cosmological constant. If we use it in a model, and still start with the big bang and choose a certain range of values for the cosmological constant, we will get a universe which expands very rapidly at first, then slows down like our Model III but stops decelerating at some point and then begins to accelerate for ever after. Space can be flat in such a universe.

Our final model, Model V, is an example of such a universe which is now in the accelerating mode. It is illustrated in Figure VI. The cosmological constant represents the energy density of empty space and provides a repulsive force opposing gravitational attraction. It can be seen that the path of a galaxy in this Figure has a slight s-curve shape as it first slows down and then speeds up. Some recent observations, discussed below, seem to support this model. In such a model, the gravitational force is very strong when the universe is young and dense and it overcomes the repulsive force of the cosmological constant. As the universe expands, however, the gravitational force weakens as the universe becomes less dense, and finally the repulsive force wins out and galaxies accelerate. Using the results of the recent papers suggesting an accelerating universe, the curves of Model V assume that the accelerating phase started some 7 billion years ago and the present rate of expansion is some 18% greater than the rate at the beginning of acceleration and that space is also flat.

For this model, the concepts of curvature and extent and open or closed discussed above do not apply directly, the situation is more complicated. While space is flat in this model and the universe is unbounded (unless it is multiply connected), the expansion does not slow down to a standstill after an infinite time as in Model III, the universe continues to speed up and eventually expands exponentially.

For a model such as this in which space is flat and the cosmological constant is greater than zero, there is a different meaning to density. The density of matter divided by the critical density of 3H(t)2/8pG is called Wm and the cosmological constant divided by 3H(t)2 is called Wl . For this model, Wm plus Wl equals 1 (when the universe is old enough that the contribution by radiation density is unimportant) indicating flat space. Model V assumes that the present value of Wm, called Wm0, is 0.3 and of Wl, Wl0, is 0.7. In the very early universe, Wm was nearly 1 and Wl was nearly 0. As time goes on, Wm will decrease toward 0 and Wl will increase toward 1. An Wl of 1 indicates an exponentially expanding universe forever.

The behavior of Wm is shown in Figure VI. There will be considerable discussion of the values of Wm and Wl in times to come as more data flood in. Appendix III describes the equations which give the behavior of these quantities and of the scale factor as functions of time.

Other Aspects of the Models

There are some other interesting aspects of these models. Using Model III, since it is widely used and the equations are simple, we can ask "What is the maximum proper distance away a light source can be now whose light has just reached us now?" For sources further away, there has not been time in the whole age of the universe for light to reach us. This proper distance is called the particle horizon, Dph. For Model III this distance is 3ct0 and a particle now at this distance is receding at a velocity of 2c.

Note that the distance is not ct0 as many books and journal articles suggest but 3ct0. (Maybe they are using the light travel distance or not grasping these concepts.) This result clearly implies that a galaxy can be receding from us at a proper velocity due to the expansion of space itself greater than the speed of light and still be seen by us since the redshift is not given by the relativistic Doppler shift equation but by equation (3) for a galaxy at rest in its own space.

Another concept is called the event horizon, the minimum distance away a particle can be now so that the light it emits now will not reach our location in any finite time in the future. For Model III there is no event horizon, the light emitted now by any particle in the universe will eventually reach our location.

Another interesting effect is that the angular size of distant galaxies is less as they get further away (as would be expected) for distances up to a certain distance. Beyond that distance, however, the angular size increases with increasing distance. This effect is shown in Figure VII as a function of z, again for Model III.

Observational Findings

How can we tell which of these models comes the closest to describing our real universe? As mentioned above, it presently appears that the actual mass density of our universe is perhaps 1/3 or so of the critical density, suggesting our Model IV or Model V. Also, measurements of the sizes of ripples in the CMBR, discussed below, suggest a flat universe, favoring Model V.

There have been some very recent measurements which are quite suggestive. Certain supernovae have an absolute luminosity which can be closely determined from the time history of their flaring up and dying away. This makes them somewhat like "standard candles" and is thought to give us a good basis for looking at their apparent luminosities (a measure of distance) and their redshifts (a measure of velocity of recession). If these results are plotted as relative magnitude Vs. redshift, different cosmological models give slightly different shape curves. Figure VIII shows the shape of three curves for our models II (very low mass density), III (critical density of the Einstein deSitter model) and V, the model with a present cosmological constant equivalent energy density of about 0.7 and a mass density 0.3 critical and therefore with a universe undergoing acceleration at the present time.

The very recent experimental measurements(6)(7) for some 20 or more supernovae fit best the line for the accelerating universe with the non-zero cosmological constant! Detailed graphs are included in these references showing how the observed data points fall. Since these measurements were made more supernovae have been measured with similar results. There will be a lot of interest in this model in the months and years to come. Many more measurements of supernovae will be made.

The differences among these models are reflected in the differences in the shape of the curve for R(t). A simple picture of this curve shape for Models III and V is given in Sky and Telescope(8).

For our Model III the relation is:

R(t)~t2/3-----------------------------(4)

For our Model IV an approximate fit is:
R(t)~(t2/3+at)------------------------(5)

For Model V an approximate fit to recent supernovae data is given by:
R(t)~(t2/3+aebt)---(6)

Some cosmologists are still thinking of a model close to our Model IV with about 1/3 the critical density but no cosmological constant. Since the Einstein deSitter model of our Model III permits an exact solution for the model parameters and describes flat space, it is used as well by some cosmologists to report their results.

Quite often, reports in the press and in magazines like Scientific American, Science and Science News report cosmological data without mentioning which model is being used. In addition, usually the concept of distance being used is not mentioned either and whether it is distance now or distance then. It looks as if the light travel distance is used in many cases rather than any proper distance and frequently it is Model III, the Einstein deSitter model which is being used in published papers for the general public. Also, at times, the relativistic Doppler shift equations are used rather than the cosmological redshift ones. An article in Science News for April 17, 1999, for example, says "..a galaxy 14.25 billion light years from earth.....the light.... left the galaxy when the universe was just 5% of its current age.....has a redshift of 6.68".

It looks as if the Einstein deSitter model is being used with an age of the universe of about 15 billion years. The lookback time is 14.25 billion years and thus the distance quoted appears to be the light travel distance. The proper distance now is much greater than 14.25 billion light years and the proper distance then was much less. The redshift of 6.68 fits our Model III and Figure III for this value of lookback time. Observations at redshifts of 8 and 10 give the lookback times (and light travel distances) which also fit our Figure III.

In principle, another way to differentiate among the models is to look at the count of galaxies within a certain solid angle out to a certain distance as a function of distance as expressed by the redshift. The difference between our Model II and Model III is shown in Figure IX for a universe with uniformly distributed galaxies. There is quite a difference in the value of z at which the curves reach their maximum since the models are quite different in the volume of space within a given redshift. This technique is discussed in Peebles(4) pages 331-333 where it is indicated that this could be a powerful tool. Unfortunately, in our universe, galaxies are not uniformly distributed, we have galaxies, galaxy clusters, galaxy superclusters and the "great wall" of galaxies. There are also questions as to whether there were galaxies of similar number and size in the very early universe, so this approach is not yet very helpful. Perhaps, in time to come, much more data will be gathered and this picture might also help to differentiate among the models. It is also possible that galaxy observations may clarify the question as to whether our universe is multiply connected as mentioned above.

A more fruitful line of investigation appears to be to measure the CMBR with extreme accuracy to notice slight differences in signal strength in small regions of the sky and to note the distribution of the angular size of these differences and thus to deduce the values of some of the key cosmological quantities of these models. There is active research going on in this field. From an analysis of the very early universe when radiation and matter were not decoupled "ripples" can be predicted and the spectrum of their sizes as well. When we observe these ripples in the CMBR their size spectrum gives us an indication of the curvature of the universe. For a flat universe the first major peak in the spectrum should be at about 10. Recent measurements are consistent with a flat space model as indicated in a Sky and Telescope article(9). Even more recent measurements further support this result and indicate a flat universe.

With the Hubble telescope and the advent of larger ground-based telescopes and continuing improvement in detection techniques, more and more will be learned about this fascinating and awe-inspiring universe of ours and it might well be that the accelerating universe model may win out and perhaps the multiply-connected universe of the Scientific American article(3) as well. There are three articles on cosmology touching on many of these same points in another Scientific American issue (10)(11)(12) .

It appears that many, if not the majority, of cosmologists presently seem to favor this Model V with an accelerating universe. There is a problem, however, in explaining the absolute magnitude of the cosmological constant which seems to be necessary to fit the observed astronomical data from supernovae and from the CMBR. This value for the cosmological constant is many orders of magnitude smaller than the value which would be derived from quantum mechanical analysis of the properties of empty space. It would be nice to be able to show why the cosmological constant has the value it does and why the values for Wl and Wm are so close at the present epoch.

A cosmologist favoring Model IV, on the other hand, has to struggle with the evidence from supernovae, the evidence for a flat universe and yet the evidence for a mass density well below critical. Many more measurements of supernovae will be made and there will be many more galaxy luminosity and redshift measurements and galaxy counts in the next few years. There will be many more searches for dark matter and measurements of the CMBR. A whole new chapter of x-ray spectroscopy is beginning with the x-ray satellite Chandra now in orbit with others to follow soon permitting other explorations of dark matter and background radiation. Keep tuned. We are in a very rich and productive period for cosmology. Two candidates for dark matter are Machos (massive compact halo objects) and Wimps ( weakly interacting massive particles). Machos could be ordinary baryonic matter (protons and neutrons) but Wimps would be something else. Much more needs to be done to determine the nature of dark matter.

The evidence for an accelerating universe seems to be strong. The evidence that space is flat seems to be strong. The evidence that matter density including dark matter in halos around galaxies and galaxy clusters is still only about 1/3 critical appears to be strong. The uncertainty today is mainly in the question as to whether there really is a cosmological constant as presently envisaged or whether some other as yet unknown effect is in play. This situation is thoroughly described in "Living with Lambda" by J. D. Cohn (13)

Reporting in the Press

Finally, when a statement is made in the press or a journal that a distant galaxy with such and such a redshift is such and such distance away and that we are seeing it when the universe was only so old we might ask:
  • What cosmological model is being used?
  • Is space flat or curved positively or negatively?
  • What concept of distance is being used?
  • If proper distance, is it distance now or distance then?
  • What value of H0 is being used?
  • Is the redshift treated as cosmological or Doppler?
  • What value of the cosmological constant is being used?
  • What is the assumed ratio of actual mass density to critical density?

The Equations and Appendices

For those interested in the form of the equations, Appendix I lists all the quantities used in this discussion and gives their definitions. Appendix II gives the equations relating these quantities for the Einstein deSitter universe of Model III since for this model the equations are simple and the model is used by many cosmologists in reporting their results. Many of the derivations for this model can be found in Peebles' book on cosmology(4).

Appendix III gives the basic Friedmann equation of general relativity and the values of the mass density divided by the critical mass density and the cosmological constant terms and the curvature terms for Model II through Model V.

© 2000. Ed Barlow -- All rights reserved.

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